2024’s elections around the world: The who’s who and the so what…
- 23 January 2024 (7 min read)
Key points:
- More than 60 countries, representing almost half of the world’s population, go to the polls in 2024.
- The US Presidential election is likely to be the most consequential; a rerun of the 2020 Biden vs. Trump contest looks most likely, but alternatives are still plausible.
- European Parliament and UK elections are likely to have less global significance, but will impact policy going forwards.
- Geopolitically-sensitive general elections took place in Taiwan in January – the Democrats achieved a historic third consecutive Presidential victory. We continue to monitor China’s reaction.
- Policy continuity is expected in major emerging markets such as Indonesia, India and Mexico. South Africa’s ANC party may lose its Parliamentary majority for the first time since apartheid and Turkey’s local elections will test the country’s commitment to orthodox policies.
- In frontier markets, Panama faces an uncertain outcome and Senegal is looking at a fraught election process.
Disclaimer
This document is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment research or financial analysis relating to transactions in financial instruments as per MIF Directive (2014/65/EU), nor does it constitute on the part of AXA Investment Managers or its affiliated companies an offer to buy or sell any investments, products or services, and should not be considered as solicitation or investment, legal or tax advice, a recommendation for an investment strategy or a personalized recommendation to buy or sell securities.
It has been established on the basis of data, projections, forecasts, anticipations and hypothesis which are subjective. Its analysis and conclusions are the expression of an opinion, based on available data at a specific date.
All information in this document is established on data made public by official providers of economic and market statistics. AXA Investment Managers disclaims any and all liability relating to a decision based on or for reliance on this document. All exhibits included in this document, unless stated otherwise, are as of the publication date of this document.
Furthermore, due to the subjective nature of these opinions and analysis, these data, projections, forecasts, anticipations, hypothesis, etc. are not necessary used or followed by AXA IM’s portfolio management teams or its affiliates, who may act based on their own opinions. Any reproduction of this information, in whole or in part is, unless otherwise authorised by AXA IM, prohibited.
Issued in the UK by AXA Investment Managers UK Limited, which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority in the UK. Registered in England and Wales No: 01431068. Registered Office: 22 Bishopsgate London EC2N 4BQ
In other jurisdictions, this document is issued by AXA Investment Managers SA’s affiliates in those countries.
Risk Warning
The value of investments, and the income from them, can fall as well as rise and investors may not get back the amount originally invested.