Will COP29 be an enabling COP?
- 30 October 2024 (5 min read)
The 29th United Nations Climate Change Conference COP29 comes at a unique point in time.
Set to take place in Baku, Azerbaijan, from 11 to 22 November 2024, it commences just after the US presidential election - one of multiple elections around the globe this year – and as the world tackles ever more extreme weather events as well as conflict in the Middle East and Ukraine.
This year’s event will have to follow up on the first-ever stocktake of global climate action and the call to gradually transition away from fossil fuels that was agreed at last year’s COP28.
It will be headed by Mukhtar Babayev, who has served as Azerbaijan’s Minister of Ecology and Natural Resources since 2018 and has close ties to the country's national oil company, the State Oil Company of Azerbaijan (SOCAR).
Like the United Arab Emirates, which hosted COP28, Azerbaijan’s economy largely relies on oil and gas production, which accounts for around half of the country’s GDP and over 90% of its export revenues.1
While it might not be conducive to concrete actions aimed at transitioning away from fossil fuels in the short term, the current backdrop of exacerbated geopolitical risks and conflict in the Middle East raise in our view more impactful questions. Supply disruptions have the potential to weigh on energy prices - around 20% of today’s oil and liquified natural gas supplies flow through the Strait of Hormuz2 - in turn impacting the future of energy demand alongside energy security obligations. It is likely to colour the debates at this upcoming COP on future carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions data.
Meanwhile, key negotiations at COP29 are expected to widely focus on climate finance. In our view, climate ambition is likely to remain confined to advocating enhanced Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and advancing on 2030 renewable energy and energy efficiency targets announced at COP28.
- PGEgaHJlZj0iaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cudHJhZGUuZ292L2NvdW50cnktY29tbWVyY2lhbC1ndWlkZXMvYXplcmJhaWphbi1tYXJrZXQtb3ZlcnZpZXcjOn46dGV4dD1BemVyYmFpamFuJTI3cyUyMGVjb25vbXklMjBpcyUyMGFuY2hvcmVkJTIwaW4sdG8lMjBFdXJvcGVhbiUyMG1hcmtldHMlMjBpbiUyMDIwMjIiPkF6ZXJiYWlqYW4gLSBNYXJrZXQgT3ZlcnZpZXcgKHRyYWRlLmdvdik8L2E+
- PGEgaHJlZj0iaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuaWVhLm9yZy9yZXBvcnRzL3dvcmxkLWVuZXJneS1vdXRsb29rLTIwMjQiPldvcmxkIEVuZXJneSBPdXRsb29rIDIwMjQg4oCTIEFuYWx5c2lzIC0gSUVBPC9hPg==
Our experts outline their key convictions
Disclaimer
This document is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment research or financial analysis relating to transactions in financial instruments as per MIF Directive (2014/65/EU), nor does it constitute on the part of AXA Investment Managers or its affiliated companies an offer to buy or sell any investments, products or services, and should not be considered as solicitation or investment, legal or tax advice, a recommendation for an investment strategy or a personalized recommendation to buy or sell securities.
Due to its simplification, this document is partial and opinions, estimates and forecasts herein are subjective and subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee forecasts made will come to pass. Data, figures, declarations, analysis, predictions and other information in this document is provided based on our state of knowledge at the time of creation of this document. Whilst every care is taken, no representation or warranty (including liability towards third parties), express or implied, is made as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of the information contained herein. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the recipient. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision.
Issued in the UK by AXA Investment Managers UK Limited, which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority in the UK. Registered in England and Wales, No: 01431068. Registered Office: 22 Bishopsgate, London, EC2N 4BQ.
In other jurisdictions, this document is issued by AXA Investment Managers SA’s affiliates in those countries.
© 2024 AXA Investment Managers. All rights reserved
Risk Warning
The value of investments, and the income from them, can fall as well as rise and investors may not get back the amount originally invested.